The numbers given by various Panamanian officials and the data in different reports by the news media vary, but it seems that at a minimum UNISYS World Trade Inc., the US-based multinational with the contract to provide forms for Panamanian identity cards (cedulas), had at least 14,000 blank forms that it shouldn't have had and the true number may actually be more than 40,000. It is also known that a Colombian man was caught in Panama illegally possessing a number of these. At least two UNISYS employees have been arrested as suspects in the affair, another employee is a fugitive and other individuals at the company and at Panama's Electoral Tribunal are reportedly under investigation. Because cedulas are used for voting, there is a lot of speculation that what may have been uncovered was a plot to steal the 2004 elections. UNISYS and the Electoral Tribunal deny this, saying that it was a matter of defective forms that should have been discarded, some of which were diverted by a few corrupt employees.

Still unexplained is the Colombian suspect’s motive for having the forms. It could be related to a wide range of rackets, anything from bad check scams in Panama to the movement of terrorists around the world.

Less attention has been paid to what this problem could mean for UNISYS in the United States market. Since the September 11, 2001 attacks, the United States has been pouring money into "homeland security," and if the Bush administration is able to push all the legislation through a congress that will shortly be controlled by the Republicans, a new department second in size only to the Defense Department will be created and a spending spree that may surpass that of the Cold War will ensue. Much of this spending is expected to be for huge databases of information on citizens, sophisticated passes to get access to government buildings and sensitive transportation and utility works, and possibly a nationwide US personal identity card. If the scandal about Panamanian cedulas leads the US government to conclude that UNISYS runs an insecure operation, it could end up out of the competitions for billions of dollars worth of federal contracts.

However, there is another angle for conspiracy theorists. The last time that a Panamanian presidential election was decided by fraud, in 1984 when a bogus vote count gave Nicolás Ardito Barletta a "victory" over Arnulfo Arias, Barletta and his backer, former dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega, enjoyed the support of the Reagan administration. So what if the UNISYS scandal really has uncovered an attempt to steal the 2004 Panamanian elections, and what if, as in 1984, the anticipated fraud enjoys White House support? In that case UNISYS may not have lost much prestige with the US government at all.

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