Almost since the day she finished a humliating third in an attempt to be re-elected as mayor of Panama City, Mayín Correa has been talking and acting as if she would run again. And actually, she didn't get beaten by such a wide margin --- the vote was split fairly evenly among Correa, attorney Miguel Antonio Bernal and the winner, PRD candidate Juan Carlos Navarro. Still, Correa has yet to announce her intentions for the 2004 elections.

If she runs, Correa will have a loyal base of supporters and face a large group of voters who can't stand her.

In Panama, many voters go to the polls and cast their choices for negative reasons. A lot of Panamanians of West Indian or Chinese descent remember that Arnulfo Arias stripped their parents or grandparents of their citizenship and vote against the Arnulfistas. A lot of Panamanians have bitter memories of the dictatorship and vote against the PRD because that's the party that General Torrijos founded and General Noriega once dominated. A lot of Panama City residents voted against Mayín Correa because they tired of her wild manic outburst an incessant feuds, even though they gave her credit for doing a reasonable job of running the city.

At the moment Juan Carlos Navarro holds a position that Mayín Correa held at this point in the last election cycle: polls say that he's Panama's most popular elected public official. Most observers give him high marks for doing what he can in hard economic times when the national government, the city council and even a part of his own party are not inclined to do him any favors. But still, the PRD has a hard core of about one-third of the electorate, can often get 40 percent with a popular candidate, and rarely commands a majority. Correa could very well beat Navarro in a two-candidate rematch.

Now comes Sergio Gálvez, a legislator and former representante from El Chorrillo, a man with the worst attendance record in the Legislative Assembly and who is unhappy as a member of supermarket baron Ricardo Martinelli's Cambio Democratico party. Gálvez wants to run for mayor on the Arnulfista ticket, but hasn't quit Cambio Democratico, which could then remove him from his legislative seat.

Navarro has already announced his intention to run for another term, and has welcomed Gálvez into the race. Correa and Gálvez fought incessantly when she was mayor and he was on the city council, so the possibility of the ex-mayor lining up behind the would-be Arnulfista challenger seems remote.

The math works in the mayor's favor. A lot of things can happen, but Navarro must surely be relieved at the prospect of running against both Gálvez and Correa rather than Correa alone.

Meanwhile, the declared and likely candidates are touching different bases. Navarro was recently photographed in a synagogue wearing a yarmulke, and visited the People's Republic of China, stopping by Harvard to pick up an award on his way back. Correa has been heard complaining that Cuban intelligence is out to get her, after he photo appeared in a Cuban newspaper with a caption scorning her for her efforts on behalf of alleged anti-Castro airliner bomber Luis Posada Carriles. Correa is one of the few Panamanian politicians who openly advocates the return of US military bases to Panama, hosts delegations of right-wing American activists who believe that the Peoples Republic of China controls the Panama Canal on her radio show, and is a correspondent for the US-government funded and Cuban exile-controlled Radio Marti. Gálvez, for his part, has been making the rounds of Arnulfista events, passing out bags of food in Curundu's slums with would-be presidential nominee and Foreign Minister José Miguel Alemán, getting his picture taken with Miss Universe Justine Pasek and pressing the flesh at holiday events.

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