With PRD support, Mireya Moscoso has rigged the electoral system to give herself dictatorial power over the 2004 Arnulfista nominating process and strengthen the role of corruption in the Panamanian political process as a whole. The first objective was attained by making presidential primaries optional, the second in several ways, most notably a provision ensuring that political contributions shall remain secret.

Most of the PRD deputies remained silent, but for the votes they cast in favor of the measure. That it was left to Pedro Miguel González to go in front of the TV cameras and offer a lame defense seems to say more about his bad judgment and the PRD caucus members' willingness to use his foolishness as a blind than it does about any leadership qualities that González may possess. Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro's denunciation of the Electoral Code changes was an honorable exception to the PRD's dishonorable role in the whole affair.

The refrain from virtually all PRD leaders that, whatever the Arnulfistas do, the PRD will choose its candidates in primaries may well become a significant 2004 campaign issue. Or it may not. Assuming that Mireya Moscoso picks Foreign Minister José Miguel Alemán or another member of her inner circle as the Arnulfista nominee, and that the third candidate in the race will be Alberto Vallarino, the banker will be the candidate from whom the PRD's Martín Torrijos will have the most to fear. In that case the complete collapse of public support for the Arnulfista nominee would not help the PRD campaign.

The arithmetic of 2004 presidential politics suggests that this arena is not the best one in which Panamanians who want to curb corruption and enact systemic political reform might do battle.

However, the Legislative Assembly's popularity rating is in single digits and that weakness may provide a window of opportunity for those who seek real change. The election of a group of independent legislators large enough to deny the next president the budgets and legislation he needs unless constitutional concessions are forthcoming would be easier said than done, but the assembly's unpopularity makes such a thing possible.

Martín Torrijos's failure to assert leadership in the face of Mireya's power play is, like his earlier rejection of constitutional reforms, a bad sign. We are led to believe that all he offers is a new set of names and faces, rather than fundamental changes in the way that Panama is governed.

However, the structure of government might FORCE Torrijos into embracing change, depending on who's in the legislature.

If Torrijos wins the presidency, his power will be hampered by an Arnulfista-dominated Supreme Court and an Attorney General appointed by Mireya Moscoso. With a working PRD majority in the legislature, he could get around that by packing the court and changing the term in office for the Procurador General. With a majority cobbled together from a PRD minority and deputies from the existing small parties, Torrijos would have to concede government jobs, public contracts and opportunities for corruption to family businesses that haven't the slightest interest in political reform.

If, on the other hand, there's a large enough block of independent legislators united by a commitment to a new constitution, they might be the faction with which Torrijos would have to deal could be in a position to make a constituent assembly the price that Martín would have to pay to get out from under a legal system appointed by Mireya.

A Vallarino presidency would much less likely be accompanied by a legislature that supports the administration. However, if the rout is sufficient Vallarino could assume control over what's left of the Arnulfista Party and assume leadership of the old coalition with MOLIRENA. With Mireya out of office and unable to pull strings from behind the scenes, he probably wouldn't have systemic problems with the legal system.

Although he looks like an unlikely champion for reform, Vallarino has been personally oppressed by the system as it is. Even if he is the candidate of the business establishment he might be disposed to dismantle the political establishment. Business groups, after all, are some of the loudest voices denouncing "generalized corruption." Mireya and her grasping crowd of friends have been a disaster for the nation's economy, and a court system that runs on bribery and influence peddling makes rational business planning impossible. Thus we should be surprised but not totally shocked if after the next election radical political change comes to the top of the nation's agenda due to pressures from the business sector.

In that case, it would still be important to have a block of independent deputies in place. Somebody has to make sure that "reform" doesn't include the "right" of the wealthy to anonymously buy Panama's elections, a proposition that the Arnulfistas and PRD have just enshrined in the Electoral Code.