Even close supporters were surprised on January 6, when a special edition of TVN's "Dialogo" show turned out not to be the launch of banker Alberto Vallarino's 2004 presidential campaign, but the end of it. Vallarino, who has been one of the two frontrunners in opinion polls for more than one year, said that changes in the election laws and Arnulfista Party rules have rigged the system against him. Blasting an alleged "Martín-Mireya Axis," he declined to run under the current circumstances.

The immediate conclusion of a lot of political observers was that this cleared the way for an easy 2004 victory for the PRD's Martín Torrijos. However, the PRD has never won a majority in a presidential election and a two-way Arnulfista-PRD race would ordinarily be more difficult for the Torrijistas than a race with three or more candidates.

The Arnulfistas have announced that they will reopen party membership rolls for new inscriptions in February, and will hold a convention to determine the particulars of the presidential candidate selection process to replace a primary that Alberto Vallarino would have won in a landslide. The PRD, for its part, approved the election law changes that allowed the Arnulfistas to eliminate their primary but is pondering its own primary elections, with the big decisions whether the selection of the presidential candidate will take place on the same day that candidates for other offices are chosen, and what that date or those dates should be.

Meanwhile, as Vallarino pulled out as either an Arnulfista or "third force" candidate, the Arnulfista race got bigger with the entry of legislator Marco Ameglio, and Canal Affairs Minister Ricardo Martinelli tested the waters for a "third force" candidacy at the head of his Cambio Democratico party.

So far, the announced or expected Arnulfista hopefuls include former Foreign Minister José Miguel Alemán, former Health Minister Dr. José Terán, former Public Works Minister Víctor Juliao and Ameglio. President Moscoso has discounted the possibility of Terán getting the nomination, and polls indicate that few voters like the idea of any member of her inner circle as the next president. Ameglio is playing the "outsider" role, reaching out to former Vallarino supporters and carrying little of the executive branch's political baggage. From the wealthy family that sells Bonlac dairy products, he could raise the money he needs for a viable campaign. However, the Legislative Assembly is even less popular than the executive branch, according to most public opinion polls, so Ameglio could be vulnerable on that basis.

Martinelli, who served in both the Pérez Balladares and Moscoso cabinets, would likely save his Cambio Democratico party from being voted off the ballot by a third party candidacy. Though polls show him as the most popular of Mireya's ministers and he has tried to distance himself from some of the president's more controversial policies, Martinelli is unlikely to have much of a chance of winning the presidency in 2004. His presence on the ballot would almost surely work to Martín Torrijos's advantage.