opinion

A lot can happen in a year’s time, but opinion polls, conventional wisdom and competent political analysis all indicate that the May 2004 presidential election will be won by Martín Torrijos, unless he finds a way to lose it. And he surely can lose it to Guillermo Endara. Give Mireya’s annointed Arnulfista and Ricardo Martinelli only a slightly better chance than Lyndon LaRouche has of being elected president of the United States.

However, Torrijos is something of a pig in the poke. Other than a few months of relatively unremarkable service as vice-minister of government and justice, he doesn’t have a record in public office. He’s running in alliance with his party’s traditional Christian Democrat (now Partido Popular) foes, waging a relatively issue-free campaign that doesn’t let us know, for example, whether he’s one to sacrifice the public interest on the altar of market worship or align Panama’s foreign policy to the dictates of the United States.

Maybe such caution is the way to hold onto a double-digit lead. Maybe the voters will require more candor, and maybe Torrijos will adjust the scope of his message to accomodate such a demand.

But there are more immediately obvious things Martín Torrijos can do to blow next year’s election.

He can choose as his running mates a couple of white millionaires who inherited their fortunes along with their illustrious surnames and have distinguished themselves mainly by their talents at juega vivo and political intrigue. That’s the norm in Panamanian politics, and the only advantage is that it helps garner the rabiblanco contributions and keeps this country’s pathetic excuse for a ruling class from throwing their support en masse to another candidate. After Mireya one would think that these sorts of appointments would be poison pills, but some people never learn. I’m not saying that there aren’t any capable people among Panama’s Creole aristocracy, just that an inability to look any farther would be a sign of terrible weakness on the PRD candidate’s part.

He can identify himself with his party’s caucus in the Legislative Assembly, which is the branch of government that Panamanians dislike the most. There are some quality legislators in the PRD caucus, even if there aren’t any viable candidates for sainthood. However, the Torrijos campaign would be best served by a bloodbath in his party’s legislative primaries, one that takes most of the incumbents off of the ticket Martín will be heading.

He can let it be known that his style of political alliances will be the same as Mireya’s, that is, a division of the spoils that lets junior partners hire all their relatives and manipulate all the public contracts in their assigned fiefdoms without having to answer for any abuses. The alliance with the Partido Popular would be infinitely more acceptable if it becomes known that Martín will be in charge of his administration, that everyone working for him will be accountable for what she or he does, and that the nepotism, bid-rigging and all-around sleaze that have characterized the Moscoso government will not be tolerated.

Maybe it’s just this voter who’s out of touch with Panamanian political realities, and Martín will win whatever he says or does because he’s neither Mireya nor her annointee. But I suspect that this sort of thinking in the PRD camp would likely result in a second Endara presidency.

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