Jackson, Panama City's mayoral race

August 10 is a major hurdle for most PRD candidates. It's primary day for all elected posts except for president and vice-president. A lot of the incumbents, particularly the legislators, are unpopular so they've drawn a crowded field of challengers. It is very likely that a bunch of incumbents will lose in the primaries.

One incumbent who is very likely to get past the primary is Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro. He has intra-party opposition, but it's neither well funded nor well organized. You don't see Navarro's opponents on the streets or on TV.

Nevertheless, hizzoner is spending substantial sums on television advertising. That's because, however strong he may be in the primary, polls say that Navarro is in a very close race for the general election with the likely Arnulfista nominee, legislator Sergio Gálvez.

Navarro is most of the way through his first term in any public office, and it was his bad luck to become the city's chief executive at a time when the national economy went sour. Unavoidably, this has hurt him because he has had to make unpopular budget cuts, and put the squeeze on people to collect money owed to the city at times in which many of those pressured lacked the funds to pay. More avoidably, he made promises that he was unable to keep, which is a classic error of rookie politicians.

I don't think that Navarro made promises that he never intended to keep. I know other people who are annoyed about his unkept promises, including people who voted for him in 1999 and would vote for him again and others who plan to vote for someone else, but nobody's saying that the mayor intended to deceive them. He just made pledges that he meant to keep but couldn't, due to the bad economy, opposition from the city council, or combinations of these or other factors.

Notice that none of the Navarro ads make promises. Notice that the unkept pledges that bother people were made in the first year or so of his administration. To me it says that the mayor made his rookie errors and learned not to repeat them.

Meanwhile, the guy with the very worst attendance record in the Legislative Assembly leads Navarro in some of the polls. Sergio Gálvez sells food to people with scant resources at wholesale prices and passes out goodies to the needy. It's the old Roman bread and circuses routine, a political approach that has worked well in many times and places down through the centuries. People who were hungry and filled their bellies with rice and beans thanks to Gálvez's food fairs remember that, and tend to dismiss the fine that CLICAC imposed on the legislator for deficient food labeling as political mudslinging.

Gálvez isn't a rookie. He served as representante before he was elected to the legislature. However, he recently made a bonehead error that's likely to cost him dearly. Boxing show host Juan Carlos Tapia, who begins his television programs with a social, cultural or political commentary --- sometimes more aptly described as a rant --- had some disparaging words about Gálvez, and the legislator was dumb enough to respond with leaflets attacking Tapia.

Not smart. For one thing, it just prompted more and harsher criticism on the "Lo Mejor del Boxeo" show. Moreover, Gálvez missed the mark with his shots against Tapia.

Juan Carlos Tapia is not a politician. He is not Gálvez's opponent. He is, however, Panama's most popular sports journalist, and his commentaries are very influential in this country. Tapia is also the main financial brain behind Panama's opera scene. He has been the benefactor of many a talented athlete or artist. If some politician wants to trash Tapia and insinuate that he's done nothing for the people, Tapia isn't the one who comes out looking bad.

Anyway, there is a lot of time between now and the May 2004 election, during which other candidates may enter the race and Navarro and Gálvez will have their good and bad days. I suspect that in the end, a pragmatic calculus will come into play, one that could help or hurt Navarro but can only hurt Gálvez.

There has been no progress toward cleaning Panama Bay because the PRD is out of power on the national level and the Moscoso administration has been loathe to allow a PRD mayor to look good by accomplishing such a necessary thing for the city's welfare. Really, we need a president and a mayor of the same party in order to get the job of building a new sewer and wastewater treatment system done. The PRD presidential candidate, Martín Torrijos, is well ahead now and if in the last days before the voting he still holds a commanding lead, then there will be one more argument, a most pragmatic one, to keep Navarro at his post. The Mireyista presidential candidate, José Miguel Alemán, just broke into double digits in the polls but still has a snowball's chance in Hell of winning. The guy who might beat Torrijos is Guillermo Endara rather than the top of the ticket on which Gálvez wants a spot. If Endara has overtaken Torrijos by the time that Election Day approaches, that won't be a practical argument in favor of Gálvez.

I won't be voting in the PRD primary. I'm not a member of that or any other political party. For the general elections next May I'm fairly well set as to some of the people for whom I won't vote, but I honestly don't know which candidates I will choose. However, I will say that in general the mayor and the representantes, despite their various disagreements, have done a reasonable job of running the city government during hard times. In the legislative and presidential races the vindictive "voto de castigo" is called for and will likely be cast in great numbers, but in Panama City's municipal races the voters should insist that challengers make strong positive cases for themselves.

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Jackson, Panama City mayoral race

opinion

The mayor's race: rookie errors and a surprising challenge