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A CID/Gallup poll commissioned by El Panama America showed Martín Torrijos with a 10-point lead over Guillermo Endara, with José Miguel Alemán and Ricardo Martinelli way behind. As with other polls, the survey, taken between the 16th and 20th of November, showed Alemán and Martinelli with high negative ratings --- 29 and 24 percent of respondents respectively said that they’d never vote for them --- and worst of all for Alemán, 15 percent of Arnulfistas said that.

The officially recognized political party with the fewest registered members, the Partido Popular (former Christian Democrats) has even fewer members now. The party has had to postpone its convention after 345 delegates and alternates --- about one-third of the total -- - decided to bolt the party because they oppose the alliance with the PRD. Most of these people will be throwing their support to the Endara campaign. But meanwhile the PRD-PP alliance isn’t universally popular in the PRD either, and despite some rather lame arguments that the strongest candidate for the number two spot on the Torrijos slate is legislator Rubén Arosemena, the polls overwhelmingly suggest that the most popular of the potential candidates for first vice- president is entertainer Rubén Blades and that voters would just as soon not see any legislator on the ticket. Negotiations between the PRD and the Partido Popular are stalled on precisely who gets which positions in a possible Torrijos government in large part because of this political reality. If the party with the green star can’t agree on the terms of their becoming a junior partner on the Torrijos slate, then that would tend to give the PRD candidate more freedom to choose the running mates he wants and to demonstrate that his administration will not be a conglomeration of political or family fiefdoms like the present government.

The man with the very worst attendance record in the Legislative Assembly, Sergio Gálvez, says he wants to seek three jobs in next May’s elections --- re-election to the seat he rarely occupies in the legislature, mayor of Panama City and representante for El Chorrillo. The Arnulfista Party, whose candidates are essentially chosen by Mireya Moscoso, warns that it will only nominate him for one job and that won’t be for mayor. Earlier this year Gálvez briefly led incumbent mayor Juan Carlos Navarro in the opinion polls, but that trend has waned and were a two-candidate vote held now it would likely be a Navarro landslide. There remains, however, the possibility of a rematch between Navarro and the mayor he ousted, Mayín Correa. Although she’s not out there campaigning and the polls don’t show her as a big threat to Navarro, those numbers could change in an instant if she threw her hat into the ring.

With polls suggesting that most Arnulfistas support Guillermo Endara rather than José Miguel Alemán and that next May the Mireyista alliance will suffer the worst election defeat ever for an incumbent coalition, the high profile defections continue. This time it’s legislator José Luis Fábrega, who has quit the Arnulfista Party and will run for re-election in his Panama City district as a member of Solidaridad.

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