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Dichter & Neira: Torrijos
49.2%, Endara 31.9%
A Dichter &
Neira poll commissioned by La Prensa and taken in early December
showed Martín Torrijos widening the gap between himself
and Guillermo Endara, 49.2 percent to 31.9 percent respectively,
with José Miguel Alemán falling to 8.3 percent
support and Ricardo Martinelli rising to 5.1 percent. The poll
found that the battle for the independents is mostly between
Torrijos and Endara --- with the latter winning a bigger share --
- and that the Mireyista alliance is drifting downward toward
the possibility of some of its component parties losing their
ballot status. If you divide Alemán’s 8.3 percent
into its partisan columns, 5.2 of those percentage points come
from Arnulfistas, 1.7 from the Partido Liberal Nacional and 1.4
from MOLIRENA. Similarly figured, 4.6 of Torrijos’s
percentage points come from people who identify themselves with
the Partido Popular. Most of rank-and-file Arnulfismo and a big
part of MOLIRENA are in the Endara camp, most likely including a
number of people who will say what they must to keep their
government jobs but vote for Endara rather than Alemán in
the secrecy of the ballot booth. Torrijos shows his main
strengths in the Panama - Colon metro area and among younger
voters.
And he’ll be flattening
what or whom?
At a recent
campaign event in San Miguelito, red friction-powered toy
monster pickups with the “Martín Presidente
2004” logo were passed out to kids. Can one of these run
over a fleet of Cadillacs, or a soggy helicopter?
Endara: Mireya’s
government distinguished by its corruption
At a campaign
appearance in Bambito, Solidaridad candidate Guillermo Endara
addressed a room full of supporters that included some of
Chiriqui’s prominent Arnulfista and MOLIRENA activists.
Mireya Moscoso, Endara charged, “has surrounded herself
with people who are corrupt to the marrow.” The ex-
president said that corruption is the outstanding feature of the
current administration and contrasted current practices with the
principles that he said the late Dr. Arnulfo Arias espoused.
Mireya Moscoso is Arias’s widow, while Endara served as
Arias’s top aide at one point in his political career. Most
of the rank-and-file Arnulfistas are already backing the Endara
campaign, but to get back in the Palacio de las Garzas will
probably have to further deflate José Miguel
Alemán’s 8.3 percent support in the polls in order
to beat Martín Torrijos in the May 2 elections.
Navarro gets the skinny one
Last summer when
it was first suggested that the Arnulfistas may go with the lean
Marco Ameglio rather than the heavyset Sergio Gálvez as
their Panama City mayoral candidate, incumbent Juan Carlos
Navarro said that it didn’t matter much to him whether he
got the skinny Arnulfista or the fat one, he’d win the
race. Seems like Navarro will be facing the skinny one. The
Ameglio mayoral campaign started on a couple of miscues, with
rumors of a possible Solidaridad cross-nomination ruled out and
various suggestions of a celebrity running mate unconfirmed.
Current indications are that Mayín Correa will not
complicate the race by seeking her old job back, but may instead
run for the legislature on the MOLIRENA ticket. A two-way race
between Navarro and Ameglio could go either way, although the
most recent polls suggest that Navarro is popular enough to get
re-elected at this stage. Ameglio, who ran for the Arnulfista
presidential nomination using the slogan “Your hopes are my
promise,” is critical of Navarro for some of the budget
cuts that the city made in recent years. Given national economic
facts and a city council that has been dominated by the
mayor’s opponents, however, voters may not find unpopular
budget moves a compelling enough reason to dump Navarro. Still,
something close to half of the Panamanian electorate is
generally disposed to vote against the PRD, on whose ticket
Navarro will appear, while Ameglio’s problems with Mireya
Moscoso during his ill-fated presidential bid may shield him
from some of the Arnulfistas’ deep unpopularity of the
moment.
Rosales going for another
term
She’s been
in and out of office and under arrest several times due to
Colon’s ill-fated attempt to issue municipal bonds, but
despite all that and the still pending charges against her, the
Arnulfistas have nominated Matilde Rosales de Ardines to run for
another term as mayor of Colon.
Martinelli plays to US right
Ricardo
Martinelli recently went to Washington, where he met with a
number of Republican congressional aides and mid-level Bush
administration officials, and where he will return in February
to be the guest speaker at a conservative Heritage Foundation
event. Read between the lines, the trip indicates that
Martinelli’s natural affinities are with the right wing of
American politics and that notwithstanding ideological kinship,
Washington Republicans are not taking Martinelli too seriously
as a presidential candidate.
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