Fisher, The candidates are off and running

Like any other year, New Year's resolutions by this time must be a forgotten thing of the past. People make them in different ways, they buy grapes and count the seeds, hoping to find in them some tiny glimpse of what may come in the next months, they drink champagne with the earnest desire to willingly accept the unknown, an unknown that by their standards cannot be worse than the present tense of things. Yes, according to government figures the economy is growing but does that make a difference? Does that mean misery is creeping back?

The answer is no. It's not pessimism, it's sheer reality. We can see fancy malls sprouting left and right, the construction industry booming, call centers multiplying (and don't get me wrong, this is not bad...) but people still complain. Are we just crankier? Have we lost confidence? But... confidence about what? In order for people to be confident they must at least know a tiny speck of what's coming and we truly don't know squat!

Every election year is about unknowns --- that's what they are all about. Normally, we all have to worry about the uncertainty around our personal lives. Grapes and champagne ease that, bringing a sense of tradition and comfort at the eve of every New Year; but every election year we are caught in a game that awakens a heightened sense of anxiety, made even more unbearable with all the color-coded alarms, wars and terror threats.

But after the pecan pie is done, what to expect this New Year? Well, a lot of things happened this past year and most of these events have carried within themselves the seeds of their future. Now that the Legislative Assembly flunked the Vision 2020 proposal (due to lack of interest) for a constitutional referendum, we can expect our lawmakers to dedicate themselves to rub-and-dumb politics and not to a truly productive debate about overhauling the state's legal framework, a change that might at least ameliorate the chronic coughing of our institutions. Even more worrisome will be the motivation behind those who lose their seats in the assembly when they discuss important projects like those relating to the social security system and Panama's industrial sector in the lame duck months. What will happen? God only knows and He sure isn't telling.

Another source of concern is the election itself. We have four candidates with three different platforms: The man to beat, Martin Torrijos, has a somewhat paternalist approach to social issues, very different from his PRD predecessor, former president Pérez Balladares who was a neoliberal policy cruncher. Torrijos, when he speaks, sounds Keynesian, but words are not hard evidence in any political race. Besides, Panamanians don't hold their politicians accountable for what they say and then actually do. That's why we have in second place, former Arnulfista President Guillermo Endara, a man with a shaky political record. I won't even discuss the whole December 20th debacle, but I can surely say he was no hero in that. Amidst corruption scandals and political instability, during his presidency we achieved modest economical gains. Guillermo Ford, former vice-president and his present day running mate, framed a economic plan very similar to that of Guillermo Chapman, Pérez Balladares's finance minister. His whole platform rests in fighting corruption. But what about hard policy? That's his biggest blank, a big and dangerous blank for a guy who is affectionately called "Sweet Bread...."

The other two candidates are textbook examples of how people with big egos make fools of themselves. José Miguel Alemán, President Moscoso's candidate, has a somewhat stable political backing, but little or no credibility, even we he is trying to emulate Torrijos in policy while punching low blows against Endara to win back some of his Arnulfista voters. But will this strategy work? Who knows. I really don't care. In the long run, his candidacy will not be about politics but about political arm twisting. Last and truly least, we have dancing Ricardo Martinelli, a political newbie and entrepreneurial multimillionaire, owner of a large supermarket chain, whose radical right discourse is just too "in your face" for the electorate. He is sincere all right, but desperate. Will his reggae dancing lure votes? I truly hope not.

Perhaps my biggest blank isn't about who's going to be the winner of the elections, but if the tally is in fact going to be winnable. Yes, the " f " word: Fraud. When you hear Madam President in television saying that hers is an eight to five job and that after her exit time she can overtly campaign for her political candidate, you begin to wonder: Election Day is a whole day, and things get hot after five. I ask whether if she might, that fateful day, wake up and confuse certain presidential attributes with her Jane Doe predilections. An innocent conflict of identity? Not if you are president and your speeches are about how the Arnulfista party will crush and destroy the opposition, of how the Arnulfista party will sweep down under the rug each and every political adversary. And her record is not pristine: President Moscoso may have a honoris causa Law Doctorate, but she surely has no understanding of the whole "separation of powers" principle. I'm pretty sure her friends Magistrates Spadafora, Salas and Cigarruista didn't help her understand. If Montesquieu were to be alive, he would surely be cynically amused.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not an ardent believer of polls... yet José Miguel Alemán, even with the backing of MOLIRENA, one of Panama's largest political parties, has very low generalized political support. The Arnulfista party is mainly comprised of an aging constituency that lives in the countryside, the rest of the Arnulfista party coalition is embedded in the government apparatus. That won't be enough to be beat Torrijos, or even Endara who are the favorites among the youth of the nation, for better or worse. And that my friends, is certain: the votes of young Panamanians are going to be decisive in this election.

But will votes truly decide the outcome of this election?

E. Arthur Fisher is a Panamanian writer, author of three books. His most recent work, "Diario en Verso" is a poetry collection. He has earned distinctions nationally and abroad for his participation in conferences about international relations and human rights, for his essays (Ricardo J. Alfaro Award) and short stories (Darío Herrera Award).

Also in this section:
Jackson, The Day of the Martyrs
Dean, Restoring the American community
Fisher, Panama's election campaign begins in earnest
Gush Shalom, Sharon's plan a recipe for annexation and war
Human Rights Watch, Don't sweep Bolivian massacre under the rug
A year's collection of thoughts to bear in mind
Bernal, The day someone assassinated President Remón

opinion

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