Jackson, Martín's election to lose

The other day I read the Dichter & Neira poll in La Prensa, and later saw a young woman going down the street for CID/Gallup, taking a poll that will likely be published in El Panama America. Due to Panamanian election laws we won’t have any polling results announced in the last 10 days before the May 2 election, but so far it seems that Martín Torrijos has a substantial lead and that only Guillermo Endara has a chance to catch him.

Most likely, Endara will only catch Torrijos if the Arnulfista/MOLIRENA rump faction backing the Mireyista nominee José Miguel Alemán collapses.

Quixotically, the Mireyistas are making the negative pitch that a vote for their man is the only way for people who dislike the PRD to stop Torrijos. But of course, if someone needs to step aside on behalf of a “stop Torrijos” movement, it would be Alemán. That won’t happen, but I find it interesting that the Arnulfistas in my neighborhood have a few signs on a few balconies plugging this or that local or legislative candidate, but there’s nothing for Alemán. There’s this historical “fly under the radar” tendency in which pre-election polls have often failed to detect the full extent of Arnulfista support, but this time the question is not just the extent of this phenomenon, but more importantly the ultimate beneficiary. I get the impression that a fair number of people are feigning support for the Mireyistas but intend to cast ballots for Endara in the privacy of the voting booth.

There remains the possibility of a major blunder by Torrijos giving Endara an opening. However, that’s very unlikely. Torrijos is saying hardly anything of substance on the campaign trail. Vacuous as it may be, the PRD candidate is “on message.” The bet is that the lost votes of people who believe that this sort of scripted campaign is insulting will be many fewer than those who would get offended if Torrijos takes a position on this or that controversial issue.

At the tail end of the pack, Ricardo Martinelli appears to be creeping up ever so slightly in the polls. The guy impresses some people who ought to know better with his apparent easy grasp of the managerial issues pertaining to the executive post he seeks. People should ask themselves about Martinelli’s managerial prowess when he ran Seguro Social and 11 of the institution’s kidney patients died, apparently from improper or outdated chemicals being used in a dialysis machine, and yet the case was never resolved. People should ask about the Panama Canal’s lack of transparency during the time of Minister of Canal Affairs Ricardo Martinelli. And when Martinelli pleads that he had nothing to do with an illegal Cambio Democratico party dues payroll deduction plan at the IDAAN water and sewer utility, people ought to ask what kind of management THAT was by the party’s owner. Martinelli may legitimately mobilize the support of voters who prefer a businessman running on a right-wing ideological platform, but it’s myopia to see him as any sort of government management whiz.

So it gets down to the slick Torrijos against the stammering Endara, and if style matters more than substance, the ex-president has little chance.

I suspect that it’s going to be a closer election than Dichter & Neira’s early March polling suggests. I know that I have made up my mind about most of the races to be decided on May 2, but I remain undecided about the presidency. Whether I vote for Torrijos or for Endara, I will not be voting for a president whose political philosophy matches my own. Either way, I will have serious misgivings.

My suggestions for fellow undecided voters? Listen to what the candidates say, note the issues that they avoid and pay attention to their personal records in public life. Understand that neither Omar Torrijos nor Arnulfo Arias are running in this election. Don’t go following any herds unless you don’t mind being neutered and branded like a steer. Take stock of your own values, and what’s most important to you. Then vote for your best choice out of a field of imperfect candidates.

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Committee to Protect Journalists, Attacks on the Panamanian press in 2003
Silié, Historical background to Haiti's troubles
O'Donoghue, Two standards of human rights in Venezuela
Fisher, Scarlet Letters
Jackson, Martín's election to lose

opinion

Martín’s election to lose