Panama Canal Authority
expects
no El Niño water
problems
an email interview
with the APC’s Carlos A. Vargas
Editor’s note: When the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
declared an El Niño effect underway on September 10, I submitted some
questions to the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), and some days later
received these answers from Carlos A. Vargas, who is manages the
authority’s Meteorology and Hydrology Branch.
Q: Do the ACP's
weather predictions for the coming months agree with the NOAA's
declaration of an El Niño effect?
A: The ACP Section of
Meteorology and Hydrology coincides with NOAA in the statement that above
normal temperatures are being detected in the Pacific Tropical Area, which
is a sign of initial stages of a weak warm episode (El Niño). However, ACP
wants to emphasize that neither the present signal nor the forecasted ones
are strong enough to cause any problem to Panama Canal operations. Weak
"El Niño" events have historically shown not to have significant effects
on the Canal Watershed rain patterns.
Q: Is the ACP taking
any special preventive measures?
A: We are just at the
height of the rainy season. Accumulated January-August rain over the canal
watershed has been 15 percent above normal. The months of October and
November are the ones with maximum historical monthly precipitation. ACP
meteorologists have forecasted a normal continuation and ending of the
2004 wet season. Therefore, we are operating the lakes following the
normal rule curves. This year, ACP water managers are operationally using
--- for the first time --- Water Resources Management Decision Support
Systems (DSS) as an additional tool to make sure lake levels will be
filled by the end of the year and water benefits are maximized.
Q: If we get an El
Niño drought, the obvious loss to the canal would be if draft restrictions
must be imposed, but would it be a financial problem in other areas? (The
first thing I would think of is reduced electricity generation.)
A: ACP hydrologists do
not expect draft restrictions in 2004/2005. Continuous monitoring of El
Niño events is a first priority in the ACP Section of Meteorology and
Hydrology. We follow the phenomena not only through NOAA's predictions but
also getting information provided by other models and institutions around
the world. Our specialists attend regional meetings every three months
with the special purpose of sharing and exchanging information on climate
outlooks. The Gatun hydroelectric power production is not a priority for
canal water managers.
We first allocate
water for municipal use (potable water) and canal lock operations. Only if
we forecast excess water do we operate the Gatun Power Plant.
Q: Is the development
of Panama's ports and multi-modal transport system a mitigating factor in
the event of draft restrictions --- i.e., instead of ships loading less in
their last stops before the canal, now might they more easily and
economically put in full loads, and off-load some of their tonnage here
before transiting if necessary?
A: As of today, the
combination of experience, historical databases, real-time
hydrometeorological monitoring systems, forecasting models and water
resources decision support systems allow us to forecast that there will be
no draft restrictions.
