outdoors

But there it is. Into mid-January we have had rain over most of Panama, and torrential ones with resulting flood damage in parts of Bocas del Toro, Chiriqui and Veraguas.

So what's to blame?

We have been in a relatively mild El Niño situation, with the Central Pacific warmer than usual and the Gulf of Panama much warmer than the norm. But when this El Niño phenomenon was first observed this past September, meteorologists for the Panama Canal Authority predicted that it would not mean a drought --- the last El Niño caused a dry spell that reduced Gatun Lake levels to the point that expensive ship draft restrictions had to be imposed, and so far the ACP's estimate that we wouldn't see a repeat of that problem this year has been very prescient.

The Christmas earthquake in the Indian Ocean off of Sumatra was so massive that it not only caused the deadliest tidal wave in recorded history, but also slightly altered the speed and axis of the Earth's rotation, washed small islands in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean off the map and even nudged the Eurasian continent slightly out of position. It probably had nothing to do with our January rains, but then, the theoretical geophysical models that allow us to say that wouldn't have predicted the far-reaching earthquake effects, either.

We do know that all around the world weird weather has been ever more common in recent years, and that many scientists believe that it's because of global warming.

(The folks from the oil companies and the Bush administration will tell you that global warming is fuzzy science. And if heavy rains and landslides in California suggest otherwise, remember that it's one of those blue states.)

Whatever the cause, Panama has yet to see the steady wind out of the north, clear sky and months without rain that are the norm this time of year.

The unusual weather is, of course, bad for the people who got flooded out. It's causing big economic losses in the agricultural sector through flood damage to crops, and is also unwelcome news for the people aroudn Aguadulce who make a living evaporating seawater to get salt. The impact on tourism is hard to judge at this point.

But then on the bright side, we aren't getting as many dry season brush fires as is usually the case, and those that we do see are not as apt to get out of control.

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