Noriega, The new world trade map

In recent years, global trends and expectations have been defining the possible development of the world economy in the coming years. Economic growth in the world has undoubtedly recovered since 2003. The region of the euro has fallen behind and developing countries are faring even worse. Latin America and the Caribbean is, in general, a weak region, although some of the larger countries have managed to develop. Serious obstacles still need to be overcome in this region in order for a high and sustained growth rate to be achieved. The situation is different in South and East Asia. Their growth has been quick and consistent and this situation is expected to continue.

The foregoing brings about a feeling of general optimism that the acceleration experienced around the world in 2004 could lead to development similar to that achieved at the close of the last decade and that the economy could enter into a long period of sustained growth.

That recovery on the part of the world economy is due primarily to the improvement \experienced in the United States and the ongoing rapid development of East and South Asia. China has been the main player and its imports have grown in such a manner that the effect has spread to the other economies of the Asia and Pacific region, which have been able to take advantage of the demand of that country. China has in turn increased its exports at a growth rate exceeding double digits and in some way that has impacted on large economies like the United States, while for other countries, there is a displacement of their exports and/or a change in the trade terms with China.

Japan, for its part, following a decade of stagnation, finally experienced considerable economic recovery from 2003 due to China 's demand and the improvement taking place in the United States.

Curiously, trade patterns have changed within Asia and between Asia and the United States. China is the country that has most influenced those patterns, especially since its imports have grown at a significant rate. India has also stood out as a country playing an important role in the trends of the world economy as a result of its development.

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have also recorded their highest growth rates within the last two years, due to a rise in their exports and an extremely strong internal demand. One must not underestimate the significance of the expansion of the European Union for these countries and the relocation of the production activities in these countries, a situation that is facilitating the integration process through a new division of labor within the continent and a strengthening of the union.

It can be said that today there is a new geography of world trade and all countries, especially developing countries, must be aware and wary of the trends involved in such trade. Not all countries have the capacity and option to take advantage of the new opportunities presented by this new world. They must be careful to avoid being affected by a displacement of their exports and a reduction in foreign direct investments. China and India are receiving the highest levels of investment from countries like the United States, Japan and some European countries. Other countries in Asia, to a lesser extent, also receive significant investments. Likewise, investments from Western Europe have been directed toward Eastern Europe and this obviously has a negative impact on other developing \countries.

Luis Noriega is the Director of Trade of the Association of Caribbean States. The views expressed are not necessarily the official views of the ACS. Feedback can be sent to mail@acs-aec.org

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opinion

The new geography of world trade