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Also in this section:
Most canal expansion studies are in English
Lines being drawn on canal referendum
Torrijos administration caught up in teak fraud scandal
Bocas suicide brings out anti-gay hatred
Martín shuffles his cabinet
Jackson, Bush and his warrantless wiretaps

The lines are starting to be drawn on the canal expansion referendum

On the "yes" side:

President Martín Torrijos, former Presidents Nicolás Ardito Barletta, Ernesto Pérez Balladares and Mireya Moscoso

The Torrijos administration's campaign team: Legislator, former Government and Justice Minister and 2004 Torrijos presidential campaign manager Héctor Alemán as team leader; Fernán Molinos, press relations; Jorge Sánchez, strategist; ACP board of directors member Stanley Muschette, relations with civil society and political parties; Roberto Velásquez, coordinator of media appearances

Traveling to promote the proposal abroad: ACP administrator Alberto Alemán Zubieta; Vice President and Foreign Minister Samuel Lewis Navarro; ACP board of directors member Roberto Roy

A number of former canal employees, most prominently in the daily newspaper op-ed pages naval architect Carlos A. Alvarado

Many current canal employees, especially as the rumor has been spread that whether or not one works for the "yes" campaign will be noticed by management and will affect possibilities for future promotions and otherwise affect job status

The newly formed CUT labor federation, the most significant part of which is the FENASEP government workers' union

Local 907, the organization that was at one time recognized by the US government as the representative of the Panamanians who worked at American military bases

The Democratic Revolutionary Party (with exceptions)

The Partido Popular

Trending toward* the "yes" side, but officially unannounced:

All of the daily newspapers, which are receiving major subsidies from the ACP and the Torrijos administration

All of the television stations, which are receiving major subsidies from the ACP and the Torrijos administration

Solidaridad party founder and businessman Samuel Lewis Galindo

Most of the nation's business groups

On the "no" side:

Former President Jorge Illueca

Former Panama Canal deputy administrator Fernando Manfredo

FRENO, an alliance of leftist groups, academics, farmers and labor activists

SUNTRACS, the construction workers' union

CANATRA, the confederation of bus drivers' syndicates

Constitutional lawyers Humberto Ricord and Miguel Antonio Bernal

Businessman George Richa

Economist Julio Manduley

Bus driver syndicate leader Hugo Polo

Camino Alternativo online magazine

Trending toward* the "no" side, but officially unannounced:

Former President Guillermo Endara, and the Vanguardia Moral political movement he heads

The CONUSI labor federation

FRENADESO, the labor/left umbrella group

Former Agricultural Minister Laurentino Cortizo

Economist and former government minister Guillermo Chapman

Economist Alexis Soto

Environmentalist Ariel Rodríguez

The Panameñista Party (with exceptions)

Taking a "wait and see" attitude:

MOLIRENA leader and former legislator Gisela Chung

Many of the nation's labor unions, and in particular the teachers' unions

Most of the environmental movement

Prognosis

Look for the "yes" side, with or without public funds, to wage a massive multi-faceted media blitz and use their access to the public schools and other government institutions. They will attempt to equate the canal expansion plan with the themes of modernization, economic development and national pride. They will use pollsters and focus groups to monitor opponents' inroads into their support, and selectively respond to criticism from "respectable" opponents and attempt to paint the "no" side as a motley collection of nihilistic radicals and selfish rich people who put narrow personal economic interests ahead of the nation's welfare. At the end, the PRD grass roots apparatus will mobilize a "get out the vote" campaign for the "yes" side.

Look for the "no" side to wage a disjointed and at least at the outset poorly funded multi-faceted campaign, with Jorge Illueca, Fernando Manfredo and the people around them using their access to the mainstream media to get their public statements out. A number of the "no" supporters have regular newspaper columns or radio shows and these will also be used to get the opposition message out. The left will wage a campaign of posters, leaflets, banners on highway overpasses and appeals made in neighborhoods and on the buses. Cheap and novel communications media, like the mass cell phone text messages we have seen so far, will be employed. The people around Illueca will mainly focus their criticism on the financial risks involved in the project and specific defects they perceive in the plan. The left and labor opponents will point out specific perceived defects, but many of their appeals will be variations on the theme that Torrijos is not to be trusted and that the whole project is a boondoggle for the benefit of a few companies and families. The "no" campaign will wax or wane in tandem with Martín Torrijos's personal popularity. Toward the end, if it looks like the contest will be close, look for the Panameñistas, Vanguardia Moral or other opposition political parties to throw their resources and organizations into the balance in an attempt to embarrass and weaken Torrijos with a referendum defeat.

* People who are listed as "trending" toward one side or another are there mainly on the basis of the tenor of their public statements criticizing or applauding the proposal or the way it has been presented

Also in this section:
Most canal expansion studies are in English
Lines being drawn on canal referendum
Torrijos administration caught up in teak fraud scandal
Bocas suicide brings out anti-gay hatred
Martín shuffles his cabinet
Jackson, Bush and his warrantless wiretaps