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Referendum campaign briefs
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Panama News Briefs

On the Panama Canal expansion referendum campaign trail

The Pacific side plan is to finish another channel that was begun by the Americans in the 1930s but abandoned because of World War II and is located just beyond the low ridge along the banks of the approach to the Miraflores Locks, then build a set of locks and channel that goes around Miraflores Lake and the Pedro Miguel Locks (both at the right of this photo) and connects directly to Culebra Cut. Photo by Eric Jackson

Torrijos: financial plan isn't done

When President Torrijos was in New York to speak to the United Nations General Assembly, he took the opportunity to talk with the Wall Street Journal. He ducked the hard questions about the canal expansion project's financing, however, saying that the "financial engineering" still isn't done. Torrijos said that his administration would seek the cheapest financing available and declined to rule out loans from the People's Republic of China. That latter prospect is a cause of concern among far-right political circles in the United States, among which there are still a lot of people who believe that the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army has troops here and that the Beijing government runs our canal.

Panameñistas endorse a "no" vote

On September 29 the Panameñista Party announced its endorsement for a "no" vote, citing the plan's incomplete design and financial details, the lack of a prior environmental impact study, its proponents' avoidance of debates and a general lack of confidence that the present government and canal administration are competent to do a proper job with such a large project. The endorsement followed on a series of local and provincial party meetings where the rank-and-file members were overwhelmingly against the Torrijos - Alemán Zubieta Plan, but former President Mireya Moscoso and a small group of party members loyal to her have formed a "yes" committee. Although party president Juan Carlos Varela says that nobody will be penalized for going against the party position on this issue, several Panameñistas called for Moscoso's expulsion from the party because of her stand. It wasn't really a serious move to purge the party, but a grab by "no" campaigners for another day's headlines that point out that the hugely unpopular kleptocrat who spent more than $1,000 per day of public funds to buy herself jewelry and clothing during her five-year presidency is on the "yes" side. The extent to which the Panameñista election day apparatus will be mobilized remains unclear. As one of the country's two main parties that have organizations in all regions and among all social classes, the Panameñistas' belated entry into the contest could be decisive.

ANCON endorses "yes"

The National Association for the Conservation of Nature has endorsed a "yes" vote. The announcement was made in a note signed by brewery executive Alfredo Arias, who's head of the group's advisory board.

Division in CONATO

The PRD-aligned National Council of Organized Workers (CONATO) --- essentially the FENASEP government employees' federation plus a number of small organizations, some of them company unions --- is supporting the "yes" vote while the larger and more militant National Labor Union Unity Confederation (CONUSI) is one of the main players on the "no" side. But the General Workers Center of Panama (CGTP), one of the six organizations that comprises CONATO, has withheld its support for the "yes" campaign. After heated internal debates, the CGTP could not agree on a position and advised its members to vote according to their consciences.

New Illueca - Manfredo - Manduley report

From the vehemence of their attacks, one might conclude that the "yes" campaign fears that they might have been hurt by a new 28-page tabloid report by former President Jorge Illueca, former canal administrator Fernando Manfredo, economist Julio Manduley and lawyer Enrique Illueca. The report, circulated as an insert in El Panama America and La Critica, attacks the Torrijos - Alemán Zubieta Plan for being "bereft of economic, financial and even technical support," accuses the "yes" campaign of "manipulation, falsehoods, deceptions, myths and fantasies," calls for Panama to adopt a new set of national economic policies and advocates using the canal's profits for "an historic decade of national development" instead of the proposed canal expansion. The report was released on October 3 and over the next few days ACP spokespeople attacked it on a variety of grounds, alleging inaccurate or outdated information, outright lies and economic heresies.

Although the ACP says there will be no new dams...

Alberto Alemán Zubieta is not only administrator of the Panama Canal Authority, he's part owner of the country's largest construction company, Constructora Urbana SA (CUSA). The ACP and the Torrijos administration are adamant that there will be no dams built for the canal expansion project, while there are still critics who review the water supply situation and say that sooner or later one or more dams would be needed if the current plan to expand the canal is adopted. The president has gone around the country attacking the ethics and patriotism of those who say that dams will be needed. However, that argument is also made on the CUSA website. At http://www.grupocusa.com/services.asp?service=14 --- no doubt only until they pull the page down due to the political embarrassment it can cause --- the canal administrator's construction company says that one of the business opportunities it sees is "new dams for the improvement of the canal's functioning."

Some banners returned

The Electoral Tribunal has returned three "yes" banners that it removed because they were obstructing the view of traffic signals to Calidonia representante Ramón Ashby Chial, whose group put them up. Thus the National Front to Defend Economic and Social Rights (FRENADESO) has demanded the return of more than 200 its banners that the Electoral Tribunal removed, but without any response.

Operation Watermelon

Within the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) there are plenty of employees who will be voting "no" --- the pilots' union is split on the question and the linehandlers, who see a threat to their jobs because the proposed new locks would not use locomotives or the linehandlers who attach them by cables to the ships, are solidly against the Torrijos - Alemán Zubieta Plan. But the ACP employees, like workers for the government and at banks, construction companies, media and ad agencies that are supporting the "yes" campaign, are in many cases under tremendous pressure to take public stands for the "yes" side despite what they may personally believe, and fear the loss of their jobs were it known that they are "no" supporters. So leave it to FRENADESO to launch Operacion Sandia (Operation Watermelon) --- green on the outside, red on the inside, for the colors of the yes and no sides of the ballots respectively. "Go to the 'yes' rallies, put on the t-shirts, take the bribe, get whatever you can, get on the PRD buses, shout the slogans as if you believe the, put up the propaganda," FRENADESO advises, but then go into the booth and vote "no." In 1989 the Civilistas played this game quite successfully, convincing a lot of people, including many members of the old Panama Defense Forces, to ride with the PRD down to the polls and then vote for Endara instead of Noriega's candidate.

FRENADESO complains of violence and arrests

FRENADESO has complained of a string of hostilities, including the arrest of "no" campaign volunteer Eliécer Ortega by the National Police in Chitre for passing out leaflets; an attack on members of the SUNTRACS construction workers' union by PRD members led by Julio Kennion while the former were campaigning for "no" votes in the Colon community of Gatuncillo; a drive-by shooting of the SUNTRACS office in David; the beating of several FRENADESO campaigners by police in the Cocle community of El Cope; and the on-the-job strip searches of a number of ACP linehandlers at the Miraflores Locks who are not supporting the "yes" campaign.

Jované blasts proposal

Economist Juan Jované has released an analysis of the canal expansion proposal. The three main points are that the ACP's economic assumptions are unrealistic and thus Panama is likely to be stuck with a debt that's difficult to amortize; that there is no pressing need to expand the canal at this moment as the ACP suggests; and that, contrary to the job creation figures that the ACP is promising, the canal expansion would directly give jobs to 4,518 Panamanians and indirectly to another 18,000 at most. The ACP number for jobs directly and indirectly to be created was recently raised from 250,000 to 297,000 on some unexplained basis.

American banker disputes ACP - Parsons Brinckerhoff cost estimate

The Banking Association's Treasurers' Forum was intended to be a "yes" campaign celebration. But then investment banker Walter Molano, a partner in BCP Securities LLC, said his piece and it wasn't at all what the government and local banking industry wanted to hear. "Don't make this mistake," of approving the canal expansion plan, he urged Panamanians. Molano said that the true cost of construction would be on the order of $9 billion rather than the $5.25 billion figure that Boston "Big Dig" co-manager Parsons Brinckerhoff created for the ACP. He said that Panama would be better off making large investments in related port, warehouse, multimodal cargo handling and distribution infrastructures than in the canal itself.

Bishops urge Catholics to study the issues, vote

More than 80 percent of Panamanians are at least nominally Catholic, and the faithful are found on both sides of the canal expansion debate. By and large the Liberation Theology people are for the "no" side and the Opus Dei conservatives are for the "yes," but it appears that the divide over the Torrijos - Alemán Zubieta Plan goes from top to bottom. In a statement given at masses throughout the country, the bishops argued that Catholics have a duty to participate in public affairs and that abstention or voting without being informed of the risks and benefits of the proposal are not proper options. The hierachy declined to endorse either a "yes" or "no" vote and called upon citizens to vote in the referendum and be tolerant of those who disagree with them on the issue to be decided. The church also said that it will be conducting exit polls and otherwise observing the referendum to "give the electorate greater confidence."

Low turnout at "yes" events

No doubt about it, the advertising is heavily in favor of the "yes" side, exclusively so on television. Yet it seems that little enthusiasm is being created by all of that money. A "yes" reggaeton concert at Rommel Fernandez Stadium drew fewer than 100 people. A "yes" march from Parque Porras to Plaza Cinco de Mayo drew fewer than 1,000 participants, a large percentage of them too young to vote. What it suggests is subject to many interpretations, one of the most likely of which is that there will be a relatively low turnout in the referendum.

If a lot of voters stay home...

If there is a low referendum turnout then pre-election polls would mean less and the relative strengths of the two sides' get-out-the-vote organizations would become a much more important factor. The PRD has the most members and the best election day organization, but that party is split, with former President Jorge Illueca and former canal administrator Fernando Manfredo the most prominent PRD spokespeople for the "no" camp. In any case, in a party-line contest the PRD core is generally a little over one-third of the electorate. The next best election day organization belongs to the Panameñistas, who normally mobilize about 20 percent of the voters. They are also split, apparently not as badly as the PRD, and the extent to which the party mobilizes its organization is a big question mark. Perhaps the biggest unknown in a low-turnout election would be the election day abilities of the leftist FRENADESO coalition. The indigenous comarcas, where President Torrijos has been handing out a lot of money but disenchantment with the national government and suspicion of mega-projects are both traditionally high, are also a major unknown factor regardless of overall voter participation.

"No" march and rally on October 20

FRENADESO has announced, and some of the other "no" campaign organizations have endorsed, a campaign-end march and rally starting at Parque Porras and ending at Plaza Cinco de Mayo to take place late in the afternoon of Friday, October 20. Organizers want the participants to dress in red. Some of the other "no" groups may participate by marching to the plaza at the same time by different routes.