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opinion
Also in this section: Bernal, The canal and the constitution Leis, The nation lacks equitable and quality education
When they start making Chinese arguments by Eric Jackson You don't really know Chinese history unless you are turning gray and have spent a whole lifetime studying it. China has the oldest continuous civilization and the world's most populous nation, and the combination of those two things gives them easily 100 times more to learn than if one were to study US history, which in turn is a bigger subject than Panamanian history. However, in each case one can begin to know, and I believe unlike the proponents of the Torrijos - Alemán Zubieta Plan to expand the Panama Canal, I have at least taken a couple of university courses in Chinese history and done some reading on the subject outside of the academic setting. And having just this rudimentary acquaintance with Chinese history I am struck by the ancient and modern Chinese references that ACP spokespeople have made in their attempt to persuade people to vote "yes." The bizarre contemporary reference is the ACP's attempt to hold out the Three Gorges dam and locks project on the Yangtze River as an example of a mega-project that was a grand success. I suppose that, for people who own interests in big construction companies like Alberto Alemán Zubieta does, there is a point to that argument. The Three Gorges project had an initial cost estimate of $25 billion and so far it has cost in excess of $100 billion and it's not yet done. Although the Chinese taxpayers may have cause to be concerned, the owners of the companies with the construction contracts surely have reason to love this boondoggle. More than one million people were displaced by this project, and much of the compensation they were supposed to have been paid for their homes, farms and businesses was stolen by corrupt public officials. A lot of the people who were flooded out have ended up in China's cities, panhandling or selling their bodies and causing enormous social problems. On the other hand, the Communist Party cadres who siphoned off the funds have a really good reason to love the Three Gorges project. Mr. Torrijos and Mr. Alemán Zubieta won't lower themselves to face the critics of their plan in a televised debate, so they send subordinates to make their case. When the latter cite the Three Gorges project as the model for Panama to emulate, you don't have to be an Arnulfista sinophobe to be concerned. If you don't run the government and you don't own a big construction company, this example shouldn't be the least bit persuasive. At the May 15 debate in front of ILDEA, the ACP's marketing director, Rodolfo Sabonge, chimed in with a quote from the late Chairman Deng Xiaoping: "Who cares whether it's a black cat or a white cat, so long as it catches mice." (If you look at the percentage of black faces in the ACP work force 20 years ago and the percentage of black faces in responsible positions at the Administration Building today, I think that's a pretty good indication that color very much matters to the people who run our canal authority today, just as it did in Canal Zone times. However, that's another subject.) But what does the Cultural Revolution-era remark that Sabonge quoted have to do with the question facing Panamanian voters? Was he trying to reassure us that in the rarified atmosphere of Balboa Heights, those in charge have learned how to be, in the memorable rhetoric of the Red Guards, craven revisionist lackies of the imperialist aggressors --- or at the very least, running dogs? Sabonge continued with a quote from Confucius about obedience to authority, and there you had a bit of the thinking behind the campaign that has moved Panama several steps in the direction of having politically controlled news media like China's. But hold on there, you faux savants at the Admin Building --- your knowledge of Confucian precepts is shallow to a fault. Let us get truly Confucian about the Torrijos - Alemán Zubieta Plan. Earlier this year, while he was maneuvering to get his plan on the ballot and the "yes" campaign kicked off, President Torrijos's beach house was damaged by heavy waves on the Pacific Ocean. This was before the ACP's neo-Confucian gambit, and being a former building code board of appeals guy who spent many a formative Sunday at the Margarita Union Church, I pointed out that in one of the older surviving building regulations, the Bible told us to build our houses on the rock, not on the sand. I caught quite a bit of flack from a few rabiblancos for that remark. I guess that for those who are socially required to make a hajj to Disney World, a house on the sand is an aspiration not to be trifled with. But true Confucians would view this event from yet another angle. You see, K'ung Fu-tzu (Confucius) was a scholar from a humble family who grew up in the Kingdom of Lu, at a time when the unity of Chinese civilization was established and acknowledged but not carried out in practice. There were a bunch of warlords and regional monarchs claiming to be emperor of China, so the question was not just one of whether and how to submit to authority, but how to recognize legitimate authority in the first place. These are situations and questions that have dogged Confucian societies to this day, as anyone with more than a passing knowledge of the complexities behing the divide China - Taiwan divide would understand. The Confucians hold that the person who actually rules holds power, but the authority, respect and sustainability of that power flows from a mandate of heaven. Such a mandate can be revoked, as has been repeatedly demonstrated over millennia of Chinese history. So how does one know that a ruler has lost the mandate of heaven? The most reliable indication, according to Confucianism and Chinese political culture, is natural disaster. Chairman Mao's faction in the Chinese Communist leadership was run out of power for various reasons, but one of the main ones was a devastating 1975 earthquake in Tianjin that claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people. Deng Xiaping, who had been disgraced in the Cultural Revolution, made skillful use of this calamity by accusing the Gang of Four (five before Mao died) of bungling rescue and recovery efforts. Just keeping the story in the news was a prolonged if not specifically stated allegation that the Maoists had lost the mandate of heaven, and soon they had lost control of the party as well. Mao, in turn, used a widespread drought and famine in northern China and setbacks in the war against the Japanese to convince people that Chiang Kai-shek and his party had lost the mandate of heaven. And so on, and so on, back through the ages. An outward-looking Ming emperor lost all when a 15th century lightning bolt set fire to the Forbidden City, and the result was his replacement by a new monarch who adopted an extreme isolationist policy. High costs incurred on many a Chinese mega-project made for unpopularly high taxes, but when that extension of the Great Wall or the Grand Canal was accompanied by a natural disaster, it was curtains for the dynasty in power. So what can we say when unusually heavy waves damage the president's beach house and then he urges us to support a controversial construction project? Set aside, for a moment, biblical injunctions and common sense building standards, and think like a Confucian: Martín Torrijos has lost the mandate of heaven and his moral authority has evaporated. It was just a bit of bad luck, brought on by the weather, the president's rabiblanco defenders say. Ah, but Confucius said "The cautious seldom err." The president failed to take due care with respect to his own house, and he has been most incautious in insulting the intelligence of Panamanians. So you shouldn't be surprised if, when the votes are counted, it turns out that he erred in his political calculations too.
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