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Panamanians' tolerance, confidence in institutions wanes

by Eric Jackson

A public opinion, poll, any reputable political scientist will tell you, is but a snapshot how people thought at a particular time. Things happen, situations change and public opinion makes its adjustments. But still, well designed and executed polls are useful for making predictions and identifying trends. A series of poll showing changes over time can be even more valuable for such purposes.

With funding from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Vanderbilt University has been running the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) to look not for who has the inside track on winning the next elections but to look at trends in the ways that people in the various Latin American and Caribbean nations view themselves, each other and their society's major institutions. It is thought that such polling can be the proverbial "canary in a coal mine" warning of the danger of a sudden political explosion of which there are no previous outward signs.

LAOPOP hired Dr. Orlando J. Pérez, a Central Michigan University political science professor, to oversee the Panama studies. Using the Costa Rican polling form of Borge Asociados, he studied Panamanian attitudes in March of 2004 and again in June and July of 2006.

Are perceptions at odds with reality? Economic statistics show that Panama's economy has been growing at a healthy clip since 2003, but in last year's survey only 6.9 percent of those polled said that their personal economic situation had improved. A plurality, 47.6 percent, said that their situation was the same, while a large minority, 45.6 percent, said it was worse. So is it a false perception, or an indication that the benefits of economic growth are not being shared?

And what about crime? Pérez notes that when asked if they personally had been the victim of a crime in the past year, 92.9 percent said they hadn't, but crime is perennially high on the list of citizens' concerns.

Similarly, most Panamanians had not personally been shaken down for a bribe, yet most believe corruption to be generalized. The wealthier the person, the more likely she or he reports having been the target of corruption, and the reason for the disaparity between personal experience and reality may be that in a corrupt government that gets sold to the highest bidder, most Panamanians can't afford to bid --- or to put it another way, crooked public officials who intend to get rich don't bother hassling people whom they know can't pay very much.

In any case, Pérez points out that widely held perceptions are in themselves political realities.

So how does this affect the ways that people view society's institutions?

LAPOP found that Panamanians have low and generally declining confidence in most major social institutions. Some institutions, like the Lottery and those who organize Carnival, went unasked about, but people's support for the church, the media, key government institutions of all three branches, free elections in general, the political parties, patriotism, free trade agreements and the concept of guaranteed rights were all measured. From 2004 to 2006, pride in the country went down from 97 percent to 82.9 percent, support for the Catholic Church declined from 78.7 percent to 70.5 percent and confidence in the communications media sank from 68.5 percent to 54 percent. And those were society's most popular institutions.

Understand that the 2004 poll was taken in a nation grown sick of its president, tired of its attorney general and disgusted with its legislature, while the 2006 poll was taken just as the canal expansion referendum got underway and before last year's teacher strike, poisoned medications scandal and bus fire affair. It should not be a big surprise, then, that confidence in the legislature, the attorney general, the national government and the political parties all were shown as rising between March of 2004 and June and July of 2006. But those institutions were the least respected to begin with and in no case did a majority of Panamanians express confidence in them at the middle of last year.

Along with the widespread and for the most part growing disenchantment with most institutions, the pollsters also found that Panamanians are ever less likely to support the rights of people with whom they disagree. Note the chart below, which shows that as of the middle of last year there were no longer majorities that support the rights of those who disagree with them to vote, run for public office or freely express themselves. A bare 50.2 percent majority would allow those with whom they disagree to stage peaceful demonstrations.

Blue bars are 2004 and red bars are 2006; left to right, they are about support for:

right to vote - peaceful demonstrations - right to run for office - freedom of expression

Graphic courtesy of LAPOP and Orlando J. Pérez

What does it all mean? Pérez points out that low tolerance plus low support for institutions can lead to the breakup of democracy, and that by any measure Panama is unstable in that regard, ranking number four, slightly less stable than Haiti and more stable than only Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru among the countries of the Americas. The professor adds that in and of themselves "opinions don't lead to the rupture of democracy," but they can lead to conditions in which such breakdowns occur.

A panel discussion about the study, featuring sociologist and playwright Raúl Leis, Cambio Democratico party activist Roberto Henríquez, Minister of Social Development María Roquebert, Antonio Fletcher from the Panamanian Business Executives Association and journalist Lina Vega from La Prensa followed.

Leis remarked that the current national discourse "looks like a dialogue between Sancho Panza and Don Quixote," in which "most Panamanians think that democracy would work better without political parties or a legislature." He wondered about how Panama might move away from the brink of a breakdown, but had no particular solution to offer.

Henríquez made a thinly veiled attack on the major parties, of which his Cambio Democratico is not one, and maintained that institutions must "change at the top."

Roquebert made a thinly veiled PRD stump speech, arguing that the Torrijos administration is enaged in "the construction of a new political culture" and warning that "we must not fall into the error of thinking that democracy means that we all agree."

Vega blasted citizen apathy, the paternalism of institutional leaders, and political parties with "grave problems." Despite declining support for the media and recent scandals about journalists who take bribes from politicians, and at a moment when the government was considering new gag laws to restrict journalism, she had nothing to say about her own profession. (At least, not until the question period when this reporter raised the subject.)

Fletcher made an appeal for "values and principles," then launched into a bitter attack on Venezuela, arguing that "democracy isn't going out and voting," but rather a matter of protecting the business climate and defending institutionality. It seems that at least part of this country's business elite is afraid that someone may come along and sweep away the institutions upon which they rely to maintain their power in society, much as Hugo Chávez did in Venezuela.

In the interchange between the audience and panel Lina Vega acknowledged the decline in public confidence in the media, something she said she views "with great alarm." She also noted that the media owner have special economic interests which they assert through the institutions they control. Basically, she expressed resignation: "If there is no strong and healthy social fabric, the media can't do much about it."

Henríquez blasted the proposed gag laws and government payoffs to journalists, and called the government advertising budgets "worrisome."

But Roquebert defended the government's media policies, calling them "an exercise in social education and leadership by the president."

Dolphin capture opponents mobilize, promoters respond
Study warns of low support for Panama's institutions, growing intolerance

Allegation of an Al Qaeda plot to attack the canal

Has the old Inter-American Air Force Academy really been demilitarized?
Leftists protest in front of American Embassy

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Panama News Briefs