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CAFTA referendum coverage by A.M. Costa Rica

Treaty backers engineer thin upset

by Saray Ramírez Vindas, José Pablo Ramírez Vindas

and the A.M. Costa Rica staff

Nearly 60 percent of the Costa Rican electorate turned out on Sunday, October 7 to ratify the free trade treaty with the United States by 48,198 votes.

The vote results came in record time because the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones used e-mails via the Internet to get the totals from 4,750 polling places, more than 93 percent of the locations.

As this story was written some results still are coming in from distant voting districts, such as Isla del Coco and some Indian reserves. The results will not be official until certified by the tribunal.

President Óscar Arias Sánchez reached out to the free trade treaty opponents in a speech, but leaders of the no campaign were less than gracious. They promised demands for recounts and challenges to the voting, even though some 200 observers from the Organization of American States said there were no obvious problems.

The results were clear even at 8:30 p.m. when Luis Antonio Sobrado, chief magistrate of the tribunal, released the preliminary totals. The percentage never varied through the evening.

Participants in the Sí campaign danced and cheer at their Sabana Oeste headquarters. Many in the no campaign went home early.

Some 50 youths opposed to the treaty burned Sí posters and flags near the Asamblea Legislativa buildings in San José about 9:30 p.m. However, there were no reports of serious disturbances even though treaty opponents had threatened to take the battle into the streets.

Of the seven Costa Rican provinces, the Sí campaign carried four. In San José Sí triumphed by 19,612 (304,553 to 284,941), according to preliminary tribunal figures. In the Provincia de Cartago the difference was 24,313 (106,094 to 81,781). The no campaign carried Alajuela 151,785 to 145,311, Guanacaste, 44,878 to 40,291 and Puntarenas, 55,658 to 54,314. Limón strongly supported Sí 47,401 to 38,790, the Tribunal said. Heredia also was in the Sí camp, 89,183 to 81,113.

The favorable vote for the treaty was a surprise because polls published last week predicted a no victory.

The referendum, if certified, would ratify the treaty, and no further legislative action is needed. However, lawmakers are facing 13 measures that are required to adjust Costa Rican law to what negotiators promised to do in the treaty. Opponents of the treaty have promised to fight the passage of these measures if the treaty were ratified. Arias said he would shelve the measures if the treaty was defeated.

So the battleground now shifts from a national election campaign to the 57-member legislature where a coalition of parties supporting the treaty have a two-thirds majority. However, assembly rules allow extensive stalling by individual lawmakers.

Election day saw mostly good weather, except for Guanacaste and in Limón where heavy rains were reported. That may have affected the turnout.

The results were a bitter pill for Ottón Solís, the former presidential candidate and head of the Partido Acción Ciudadana. Based on polls, treaty opponents expected an easy win. He and other leaders of the No campaign spoke to their supporters, who were shouting words like fraud and rebellion.

Referendum vote

Sí  --  51.58%  -- 787,147

No  --  48.42%  --  738,949

Based on 96.33% of 1,549,723 voters  (59.9% eligible)

Sí supporters celebrate. Photo by A.M. Costa Rica/Saray Ramírez Vindas

Late push by the Sí campaign

could have swayed the undecided

by Jay Brodell --- A.M. Costa Rica

The victory that ratified the free trade treaty in the Sunday, October 7 referendum was unexpected because public opinion polls showed that the no vote had a significant lead, perhaps as much as 10 points.

Instead, the vote turned out to mirror closely the slim margin that decided the election of Óscar Arias Sánchez, who said that the presidential race between him and Óttón Solís was, in itself, a referendum on the free trade treaty.

How could the polls be so wrong? The political landscape is dotted with the bleached bones of pollsters who went wrong, whether the question is an election or a new toothpaste.

The Literary Digest poll in 1936 said that Alf Landon would beat Franklin D. Roosevelt. Whooops. FDR got about 62 percent of the popular vote. The cause of this disaster was that the Literary Digest had relied on telephone directories and automobile registrations to obtain participants in its mail poll.  In other words, they asked a disproportionate number of Republicans.

The statistics of a typical poll says that there is a 95 percent probability that the results of the poll will be reflected in the general population within certain margins of errors. What most pollsters do not say is that there is a 5 percent probability that the poll results will be haywire. One in every 20 polls will be grossly inaccurate.

The referendum vote appears to have confounded the pollsters for two reasons. First, some supporters of the treaty were shy about saying so when they were asked their opinion. The no side was certainly far more vocal and perhaps menacing for some.

And then once the polls last week were published showing the no votes with an advantage, President Óscar Arias Sánchez pulled out all the stops and told the nation it was about to commit economic suicide. Then the US trade representative said Thursday that there was no chance to re-negotiate the treaty. The drumbeat of the Sí campaign filled the television and the newspapers.

The late breaking news appears to have been enough to sway the undecided, which made up about 2 percent of the published polls.

US-RP free trade pact stalled
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Lunchtime on Avenida Peru

Costa Rica holds CAFTA referendum
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Business & Economy Briefs