Panama reacts to Obama

A working man's salute to Barack Obama. Photo by José F. Ponce

Panama reacts to Obama's victory
by Eric Jackson

Horns honking in Paitilla.

Black Panamanians who can't afford cars cheering in poor neighborhoods.

A party in Paitilla where Americans and people of several other nationalities drink a champagne toast to the new US president-elect.

Yes, there are Republicans in Panama's American community and Bush fans among the Panamanian citizenry, but most people here look forward to a change in Washington and are pleased by Obama's election.

But some doubt that there will be very much change. Roberto Henríquez, who was Ricardo Martinelli's running mate in 2004 and is again supporting the Cambio Democratico candidate for the May 2009 election, opines that his man, who attended the GOP convention, would get along just fine with an Obama administration because even if the personalities at the helms of nations may change in apparently dramatic ways, relationships between nations that are old allies tend to show a lot more continuity. Most of the folks at FRENADESO, who don't see enough of a difference among Balbina Herrera, Ricardo Martinelli, Juan Carlos Varela and Guillermo Endara to vote for any one of them, will similarly argue that the United States is an imperialist power and will remain so under both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Among the people celebrating Obama's victory in Paitilla were some diplomats of countries long friendly to both the United States and Panama and they were privately rejoicing at the prospect of an American administration that shows a decent respect for the opinions of mankind. There are also some US diplomats stationed here who concur.

Obama has never been to Panama, doesn't speak Spanish and hasn't said much about his policies toward Latin America. If the opinions that they have expressed in the past are any indication, some of the people closest to him will be advocating contrary policies toward the region. Because the next US president is a cautious politician who managed to put together a broad base of support while making few hard and fast commitments, many or even most of his backers are bound to be disappointed in this or that expectation of what he's supposed to do.

The first big test will come before he's president. What, as the leader of the Democratic Party and the junior senator from Illinois, will Obama do about the US-Panama free trade agreement? There will be a push in the lame duck congressional session to ratify such agreements with Panama, Colombia and South Korea. Only the Panama agreement is given much chance of passing, and that appears to be an outside chance. It's not likely to pass a lame duck vote over Obama's strong objections.

Obama's coat tails were not as long as one might have expected, but the new Congress will still have an altered complexion, with more Democrats and a greater percentage of those who will be opposed to the NAFTA / CAFTA model of trade relationships in the Americas. Obama's not a protectionist, but he will want to make some changes to US trade policies and the Panama agreement as presently written may fall victim to that. If so, then look for new talks to begin shortly after the next Panamanian administration takes office next July.

Even less predictable will be the effect of Obama's victory on the attitudes and political behavior of Panamanians. The PRD candidate, the dark-skinned, mixed race Balbina Herrera, may be the beneficiary of popular disenchantment with a long history of white minority rule in Panama. On the other hand, white supermarket baron Ricardo Martinelli must surely hope that Obama's message of change is taken by Panamanian voters as a sign that "yes we can" put an end to the epoch in which the two political traditions that trace their ancestry to Arnulfo Arias and Omar Torrijos and have evolved into something like a two-headed monster dominate our public affairs.

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