opinion

US elections and world
oil and stock markets
by Clarence E. Pilgrim

The leadership battle between John McCain and Barack Obama has changed momentum to a point where polls indicate that the Democrats will take control of the White House in 2009. Practically all of the tracking polls suggest that Obama will beat his Republican rival by a competitive margin, especially among the crucial vote of women.

The Illinois senator who also leads among independent voters has an average 30 point margin among that demographic.

Optimistic Republican strategists are hoping for a McCain turnaround, if he is able to find his focus and settle on the right message.

However, many analysts believe that the dominant issues involving the state of the economy and particularly the turmoil in the credit, housing and financial markets, are working against McCain’s campaign.

Still, the somewhat unnecessary negative attacks made against Obama are a real voter turn-off, and the Republicans may well pay for this mistake when voters mark their ballot paper. I strongly believe November 4th will be the day which will show that the election is won on issues and not personal attacks.

What is an undeniable fact is that whoever becomes president will have to grapple with many national and international issues such as ending the war in Iraq, the world financial crisis and compliance with the World Trade Organization decisions.

The next US leader will inherit an economy which is dependant on fossil fuel, and the overwhelming need to continue the drive to find alternative sources of energy and the associated environmental concerns along with the dangers of climate change.

The modern day “fluid gold” slumped to its lowest since June 2007, from its record high above $147 in July, and is floating at a 16-month low of around $66.75. Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are pushing for a stable price range for oil between $70 - $90 a barrel. Whatever figure OPEC decides on will obviously be to their advantage and not necessarily in favor of either developed or developing countries.

The present financial crisis has cut energy demands in the United States and other industrial countries such as China, which is the world's fastest-growing economy. This has also had a proportional effect on regions ranging from the Caribbean Community to Southeast Asia.

The reality is that OPEC countries have a self serving interest to protect the pockets of those multinational corporations and individual investors whose motivating agenda is to satisfy the continuance of a wide profit margin. Unfortunately, the myopic use of petroleum and its by-products is usually done at the expense of other economic, social and environmental factors. There is generally a minus sign which is only visible when specific factors occur.

It is therefore not surprising that the oil minister of one of the leading producers, Iran, suggested that it need to cut its oil output by 2 million barrels a day.

There is the conventional wisdom which suggests that cutting back too much on production would once again plunge the world back into a situation where the price of oil would elevate to unreasonable heights, thus helping to fuel the continued fears of a global recession.

Meanwhile, Asia's stock markets have taken a downward turn, following Wall Street’s example where hundreds of companies issued unfavorable forecasts. South Korea's market was hit hardest. Amid the fall of the Asian stocks are the “on the ground” struggles of 2.7 million people on North Korea's west coast, who will be out of food in October according to the World Food Program. It is believed that famine claimed the lives of 2 million people.

There are so many challenges that the next American president and leader of the last remaining superpower must be capable of accepting the best advice, to make appropriate decisions in a world in need of timely actions.

It is my hope that the next president of the United States, who now appears to be Senator Barack Obama, will continue to walk with the dignity and thoughtfulness which he has demonstrated in his campaign, and keep the use of consultation and dialogue with other leaders high on the agenda of his new administration to overcome the serious challenges to global security and safety.

The author is an educator and senior civil servant in Antigua & Barbuda