Campaign sign for the late Fidel Álvarez, vandalized in stereotypical fashion.

Gangsterism mixed with politics, again

In the 2014 cycle, it was warfare among drug gangs aligned with PRD factions in San Miguelito that made the campaign deadly.  More recently, it was an alleged confluence among PRD politics in Los Santos, a cockfighting establishment and international drug smuggling, a judge having been so very considerate to put the trial off until after the election. Over in Colon now, Cambio Democratico candidate for legislator Samuel Bennett is under investigation by the anti-drug prosecutor on suspicions of money laundering. Bennett is the suplente for deadly hit-and-run driver deputy Maro Lazarus.

Should we be surprised at the latest? Martinelista independent candidate for representante of the Panama City corregimiento of Pedregal Fidel Álvarez was standing in the shade of a tree near a soccer field talking with several people when a stolen white car drove up, three gunmen emerged and shot three of the people under the tree, two of them fatally. The first to die was Álvarez. The hit men got back in the stolen car, drove a short distance, then waded across a river to make their getaway. Charges or wanted posters have not been issued, but it seems that the operating presumption is the sicarios were members of a local gang known to police.

Stay tuned for further details. Whatever the particulars, we are once again reminded that construction executives who pay kickbacks on public works contracts are not the only hoodlums who have infiltrated political life in the Republic of Panama.

A scurrilous and mostly untrue meme that was circulated all over Facebook right after Bernie Sanders unexpectedly beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 New Hampshire primary. A lot of the postings of this were not directly by people but through bots. We are seeing a lot of scurrilous attacks against all Democratic hopefuls this time, even though Facebook and Twitter have removed many of the bots that were being used on their systems.

US political manners: first you deflate the opponent

Joe Biden’s manners with women and girls becomes an issue before he even declares his candidacy. Actually, it long has been.

The woman who raises her objections to Biden and her personal story about one of the reasons why she speaks out now is a former candidate and was a Bernie Sanders supporter in 2016. Surely there will be a vilification campaign against her. You already see it on social media. But she does not accuse Biden of sexual assault and she is frankly political about her reasons for coming forward. The Democrats, she says, have a large field with many good candidates this year, but from her experience she says that Joe Biden isn’t one of them

EVERY Democratic presidential hopeful who has gained national attention has had unflattering personal accounts, questionable political stands taken or denigrating matters of ideology or identity raised. It’s all part of the usual thing, but there are more participants due to the social media and some of these are malicious false personas.

One of the old-fashioned US campaign maxims is that you deflate your opponent early in the campaign and do what you can to define him or her by your unfavorable narrative. Perhaps the great pre-television era classic of that was Richard Nixon’s 1950 US Senate campaign against Helen Gahagan Douglas, wherein Nixon portrayed his at the time House of Representatives colleague as this decadent Hollywood libertine who followed Communist orders. It was a total smear of the liberal Democrat but it worked.

Some of the smears directed against Democratic primary candidates are from other Democrats, or amoral and really apolitical consultants who specialize in this stuff for a fee but present themselves as Democrats. A lot of it is from Republicans. Some of it is from foreign interlopers, and probably not just the Russians.

This sort of thing works better with someone who is not so well known. Joe Biden has been on the national stage for a long time and people know about him, or think that they do. There are positives and negatives in the baggage that he carries.

If Joe Biden wants to jump into the race, he should.  He represents a mostly liberal on the social issues, mostly conservative on the economics issues strain that is part of the Democratic Party. In the total political calculation, he and all other would-be nominees are better judged by Democrats according to standards of ideas and abilities above all of the other considerations.

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L@s candidat@s y algún compromiso insípido que los poderes públicos querían que firmaran.

Falsas promesas electorales y verdadero programa de gobierno

por Olmedo Beluche

Una vieja anécdota panameña cuenta que, a inicios de la república, durante una campaña electoral, un candidato presidencial arengaba a la multitud diciendo: “Les prometo que construiré el puente que necesitan”. Y la gente le gritó: “Este pueblo no tiene río”. A lo que, sin sonrojo, el candidato respondió: “También les haré el río”. Mi abuela materna, que gustaba educarnos con parábolas y refranes, concluía este cuento con la siguiente moraleja: “Hay que ser muy pendejo para creerle a los políticos en campaña”.

Tenía razón, los políticos en campaña prometen cualquier cosa que quieras oír, pero cuando ganan y gobiernan es otra cosa. Esta verdad, por más evidente y sabida, sin embargo, no evita que la gente caiga en la trampa y termine votando por el que les prometió hacerles el río.

Para saber cómo será el próximo gobierno tras las elecciones del 5 de mayo, no podemos guiarnos por lo que los candidatos dicen en sus campañas y en los debates televisados. Ahí se siguen prometiendo “puentes” y “ríos”. Para saber qué va a hacer el próximo gobierno hay que saber lo que dicen los voceros del poder económico, nacional e internacional, que son los que mandan, salvo que haya una revolución social.

El verdadero programa de gobierno de la burguesía

En este país, los que mandan están agrupados en la Cámara de Comercio, Industrias y Agricultura de Panamá (CCIAP). Este gremio empresarial ha elaborado un documento denominado “Agenda País 2019-2024”. Ahí está contenido el programa del próximo gobierno, que la burguesía panameña exigirá y fiscalizará que cumpla.

La “Agenda País 2019-2024” es un documento de 37 páginas en que se trazan objetivos de corto y mediano plazo para 4 áreas de trabajo del próximo gobierno: educación, Caja de Seguro Social y salud pública, institucionalidad y crecimiento económico.

Educación

La CCIAP parte por la afirmación no probada de que los programas educativos y sus resultados son superiores en la educación privada, y consecuente con ello, proponen que el sistema público emule al privado.

Se propone hacer funcionar el Consejo Permanente Multisectorial para la Implementación del Compromiso Nacional para la Educación (COPEME), en el cual el sector privado tiene un peso específico de supervisión y elaboración de programas. Pero los esfuerzos se centrarán en lo que la exministra Lucy Molinar llamaba “escuelas modelo” y que Juan C. Varela ha centrado en el Instituto Técnico Superior Especializado (ITSE), el cual será coadministrado por la empresa privada a través de un Consejo Directivo.

El interés de la CCIAP es la formación técnica, de la que espera que saldrá la clase obrera futura, dejando de lado resto de la compleja oferta educativa y profesional.

El empresariado también tomaría el control del perfeccionamiento de los educadores, administrativos y directores a través de un Sistema Nacional de Capacitación Profesional Continua Docente. Como una advertencia, que no se sabe si es para los políticos o para los influyentes gremios magisteriales, la Agenda País dice: “La CCIAP se compromete a apoyar los esfuerzos de despolitización del ente ejecutor del sistema educativo…”.

Caja de Seguro Social y Salud

Haciendo una referencia general a la “Mesa de Diálogo para la Salud”, y su documento conocido como el “Libro Blanco”, propone la CCIAP en concreto:
Crear una Dirección General para el Suministro de Medicamentos, cuyo proyecto de ley se encuentra en la Asamblea Nacional, entidad que le sacaría a la CSS esta responsabilidad.

Dividir la CSS en dos entidades, pasando el programa de salud, maternidad y riesgos profesionales a un Sistema Integrado de Salud dirigidos por el MINSA, dejando la entidad solo con el Programa de Invalidez, Vejez y Muerte.

Luego la CCIAP procede a un diagnóstico falso, que culpa a la “transición demográfica” del déficit actuarial del sistema de Beneficio Definido, cuando en realidad es culpa de la reforma de Martin Torrijos de 2005, que dividió el sistema de jubilaciones pasando a los jóvenes a un sistema mixto.

En Panamá no hay una inversión de la pirámide generacional en que hay más viejos que jóvenes, como pasa en Europa; tampoco es cierto que haya exceso de beneficiarios, pues estos han disminuido en 9% entre 1998 y 2016; ni hay una disminución de cotizantes, pues estos han aumentado 52% entre 1998 y 2016; tampoco hay una disminución de los aportes a las cuotas, las que, por el contrario, aumentaron 72% entre 2007 y 2017.

El problema real es la Ley de la Muerte impuesta por el PRD en 2005, la cual hay que derogar.

Institucionalidad

Dejando de lado las recomendaciones para que las políticas públicas se enfoquen en base a análisis objetivos y como políticas de largo plazo, en concreto en la página 19 propone la CCIAP: “Seguimiento y monitoreo de los beneficios de los subsidios y/o becas. Se debe eliminar toda ayuda que no responda a necesidades reales y que solo tiene fines partidistas”.

Traducido al lenguaje directo: eliminar todos los programas sociales de ayuda a los más pobres, que ellos llaman “subsidios. Por supuesto, La Cámara de Comercio no menciona los subsidios a los ricos, como las exoneraciones fiscales e incentivos al sector privado que, como veremos en el siguiente punto, más bien sugieren ampliarlos, que son los que hacen un gran déficit en los ingresos del Estado. Tampoco se habla de la corrupción y las licitaciones amañadas.

Otra reforma puntual de la CCIAP, que es antidemocrática, consiste en elevar a 20 años el período de los magistrados de Corte Suprema de Justicia, lo cual implica una voluntad de control del organismo, ya sospechoso de corrupción. De la desprestigiada Asamblea Nacional sólo propone reformas al Reglamento Interno para garantizar la asistencia.

Crecimiento Económico Competitivo

Sobre el agro, reconoce que, pese a la cantidad de tratados de libre comercio firmados, “con las condiciones actuales es difícil competir en dicho mercado”. Por ende, sugiere: Defensa comercial efectiva (¿?), un laboratorio de control de calidad, compromiso de agroindustria para elevar valor agregado.

Sobre turismo, asegurar 20 millones de dólares del estado para el Fondo de Promoción Turística, o sea, subsidios al capital privado.

Sobre industria, que AUPSA y DEPA trabajen coordinadas y exijan a las importaciones los mismos criterios que se exigen a las exportaciones. Aumentar la competitividad “con mejoras de apoyo al sector, como lo son la energía, infraestructura general y de logística, el medio ambiente, etc.”. Además, que PROINVEX les busque mercados externos para exportar y que se impleméntela Ley 25 de 2017 que dicta medidas de fomento a la industria. Traducido, más subsidios de la ciudadanía con fondos estatales para garantizar la “competitividad” y la ganancia del sector privado. O sea, subsidio a los ricos.

Sobre el comercio, propone eliminar la burocracia y regulaciones que afectan al comercio (¿?¡!) y reuniones trimestrales del gobierno con la CCIAP, que demuestren voluntad de fomentar sus negocios.

Sobre el sector logístico, proponen coadministrar con el Ejecutivo a través del “Gabinete Logístico”, haciendo “más eficiente” la Autoridad de Aduanas, AUPSA y Cuarentena Agropecuaria, habitualmente esto significa eliminar restricciones.

Sobre la construcción, proponen modificar los códigos de edificación (Reglamento Estructural-REP 2014, y Reglamento de Seguridad Humano-NFPA) por que consideran que “aumentan los costos de manera injustificada” (OJO con esto). Además, la CCIAP quiere revisar los Parámetros de Densidad y el Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial del municipio de Panamá.

Sobre suministro de agua, se sugiere dividir el IDAAN, creando una Empresa Pública de Saneamiento de Panamá, del área metropolitana, que administraría el servicio como ente autónomo con un nuevo marco tarifario (es decir, aumento de precios).

Sobre electricidad, pese a reconocer que ya existe sobre oferta respecto a la demanda nacional, no se dice cuánto se exporta a Centroamérica, proponen convertir ETESA en sociedad anónima (privatizar) y, pese a que la tercera Línea no está completamente operativa, ya sugieren construir la Cuarta Línea de Transmisión, que nos costará 500 millones de dólares y sólo servirá para que lucren exportando energía los dueños del sector.

Preparémonos para las luchas que se vienen

En vez de depositar falsas esperanzas en las elecciones y expectativas irracionales en el “nuevo” presidente(a), los sectores populares debemos empezar a organizarnos para enfrentar el conjunto de medidas antipopulares planificadas por la Cámara de Comercio, verdadero poder político detrás del Ejecutivo.

Hay que construir la unidad para defender la educación pública, la Caja de Seguro Social, las jubilaciones, los subsidios a los pobres y exigir una verdadera reforma fiscal que la paguen los millonarios. Basta de subsidios al sector privado costa del erario público.

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Cartoon by Khalil Bendib — OtherWords

As they do their clumsy victory dance…

by Eric Jackson

Consider, for just a bit:

• You have not seen the Mueller report, nor have I, nor have the media that pretend that they have seen it. Congress has seen a summary by a partisan member of the Trump cabinet, and this has largely leaked out. Big difference.

• A decision not to indict is not a declaration of innocence. It might be. On the other hand, a prosecutor may believe that the target of an investigation is as guilty as sin, but she or he will probably not be able to convince a jury of that guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

• The press and general public, absent an egregious leak, is unlikely to get all of the facts and documents that went into Mr. Mueller’s investigation. Those sorts of situations give rise to all manner of conspiracy theories, but consider one likely road map to the investigation that would probably never be revealed in court, to Congress or in any press release, the National Security Agency (NSA) phone logs, records of emails and electronic money transfers, and recorded conversations. There have been leaks over the years about the capabilities and practices of this shadowy agency and its British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealander partners — Edward Snowden’s revelations were hardly the first. One would expect that several other countries have more or less similar capabilities and some would share information with the United States. This stuff would be kept as secret as possible, but with the allegation of a Russian attack on the US political system as the subject under investigation, it is hard to imagine that one of the first things that former FBI director — and thus US counter-intelligence chief — Robert Mueller didn’t ask the NSA what they had. It’s also hard to imagine that if the NSA told him at the start that there was nothing there Mueller would not have taken that advice seriously. More likely, Mueller got some tantalizing leads from the NSA and worked back, knowing that his leads could not be used or even admitted in court.

• The celebrated Steele memo? Mostly confirmed. Did the guy have some issues with romanizing names in the Cyrillic alphabet, get a few tangential facts garbled, make some inferences that didn’t pan out? Of course he did. But mostly he got the story right. But that memo would be for a variety of reasons starting with hearsay rules, not admissible in court.

• That the Kremlin interfered in the elections of the United States and several other countries is well established. The indictments of all those Russian individuals and institutions by the Special Counsel’s office are not hoaxes, not frame-ups. The people screaming the loudest that they are fraudulent are by and large people who were spreading all those Russian memes all over the social media in 2016.

• The sources of information about Russia’s covert propaganda campaigns are not just “Deep State” spooks. They are also Google, Twitter and Facebook. Much to the embarrassment of those companies.

• In a well documented public declaration Donald Trump called on Russia to release Hillary Clinton’s emails. Shortly thereafter her campaign chief’s emails were released. Then, with the fall campaign underway, Mueller alleges that Trump’s campaign manager, Mr. Manafort, gave a 75-page file of Trump campaign polling data to a man believed to be a Russian intelligence agent. Drawing lines of causality among such event to that satisfaction of a jury would not be a slam-dunk, no matter the first-glance inferences.

• It is protested that the men around Trump who were convicted were not charged with being Russian spies or Kremlin assets, but rather for economic crimes or for lies told. But what were their lies about? They were about their contacts with Russian operatives.

• Barr acknowledges that Mueller reported that he would not be ready to exonerate Donald Trump for obstruction of justice? Obstruction of what? Mueller’s inquiries about Russian interference in the 2016 election process.

• And what about “The Deep State?” Yes, there are millions of Americans in government jobs who would not be were it thought that they did not share in a certain belief system about patriotism, propriety and prudence. One who is known to be indifferent to a foreign power gaining control over the US political system will generally not get a security clearance from the United States government, for example. In the coming months one or more “Deep State” functionaries with access to the Mueller Report may well leak it, notwithstanding superior orders, precisely because of the conformist belief system to which she or he or they adhere.

• Mueller did not go on a fishing expedition, and thus there is an entire life of crime in which Donald Trump and his family have been immersed for decades that the Special Counsel did not touch. But what about Manafort’s financial crimes? one might ask. Well, yeah. You have a president’s campaign manager with questionable ties to foreign powers that run to the heart of the investigation, and that person and his possible motives will be minutely examined. Turns out that he’s a thuggish and greedy man, which in the end might be Trump’s best defense, that he was played by Manafort, who behind Trump’s back was in it for himself.

• There are other investigations underway, which the Barr summary of the Mueller Report will be used to denigrate. The question is how many American voters will fall for that. Trump may have some control over the federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, and the others who are following the leads spinning off of Maria Butina, the Russian operative in the National Rifle Association. Trump won’t have such control over New York’s Attorney General or committees of the US House of Representatives.

• What American weaknesses did the Russian cyber-propagandists exploit? Some obvious ones like racial conflicts, economic inequalities and religious bigotry, to be sure. Perhaps the most glaring of all, and what is most painful to admit, is the dumbing down of America. It’s partly based on a degraded public education system that those of us Americans living abroad would recognize in the inability of so many Americans to find the countries in which we live on a map. But it’s also to be seen in formerly reputable corporate mainstream news organizations pumping speculation as fact, and taking sources known to lie without skepticism. The “Gulf of Tonkin incident,” Saddam Hussein’s purported weapons of mass destruction, the Birther conspiracy theory, the 9/11 Truther conspiracy theory, all those urban legends that gave rise to the like of Snopes and then the rise of conspiracy theories to discredit the fact checkers — those told the Russians that they had a gullible nation as a target.

• Part of America’s gullibility is about the Russians. Quite frankly, a lot of media whose editorial lines are anti-Trump and a lot of Democrats have made asses of themselves about this. Sponsor an anti-Russian coup in Kiev? Threaten to put NATO missiles in Estonia, less than an hour’s car drive from Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg? Hatch a Syrian regime change plan that would deprive the Russian Navy of its use of the Mediterranean port of Tartus? We were supposed to expect that there wouldn’t be a strong response from the Russians, no matter who was in charge? And a Cold War II with Russia with China standing by laughing? What kind of geopolitical idiocy is THAT?

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